Friday, June 15, 2007

Is Generex (Nadaq: GNBT) a "Sweet Buy"?

NOTE: I'll be editting this, so check back for updates every day as I collect more links and arrange my thoughts.

JUNE 18th NOTE: At the moment I'm waiting for some direction in the price of GNBT before re-entering the shares. There seems to be a "battle" going on between big block trades at the current price of 1.80-1.86. It's hard to discern if the recent short-term support is merely some MMkr propping up the stock in order to permit shorts to enter positions, or whether it represents institutional buying holding the stock up. But it's definitely overbought on the daily chart and could trend sideways to lower for the next couple of days unless we see a catalyst for a move back up. But I don't believe any pullback will be long-term, so "dipping your feet in the water" and buying a few shares wouldn't necessarily be foolish here, so long as you are aware that the price might plunge short-term (and give you a chance to back up the truck).

Been trading GNBT for the past couple of days and banked some decent coin (approx 15% over 2 days). This stock just had a TREMENDOUS spike upward, motivating by a influential 42 page analyst report asserting that he has a $6/share price target within 18 months.

GNBT Analyst recommendation

R&R Analyst Report for your reading pleasure

So what does Generex do? Well, this little Canadian Bio-Tech has a couple of things on the plate. First off, they offer a "buccal" administered insulin drug (think asthma spray-style applicator, except you don't breath it in), which has been approved in Ecuador, and is now pending serious FDA approval. Secondly, via their subsidiary, they are working on some immuno-therapies for breast cancer. Thirdly, they have been working on "Bird Flu" vaccines (which was all the rage several years ago).

Generex Website

Now.. let's start off with the daily chart for GNBT so you all can see how historically volatile this stock has been (note that for a longer time frame, you will need to enter in 2 or 5 year numbers):

1 year Daily Chart

As you can see.. this stock is given to SERIOUS volatility!!!

So.. is it a buy? Well, that depends upon your time horizon. Being a short-term day and swing trader, I like to buy low, bank my coin on a surge, and then look for a re-entry point at support (usually on the 60 minute chart):

GNBT 60 Minute Chart

That 60 minute chart, per the day of this posting, 15th June, really looks interesting if it can hold it. There is a "pinch" forming on the hourly Bollinger Bands. Now for those not versed in BBs, they are a trader's WET DREAM!! They signify that longs and shorts are facing off like two hockey teams. And when the puck (representing the price of the stock) gets thrown in amidst them, they will battle with each other to try and send it one direction or the other. And whichever way that puck goes, both sides go as well. So, if the price goes up, both sides go long.. If it goes down, both sides go short. This will continue until the next level of support/resistance is reached. And the longer the time horizon (daily, weekly) the stronger, and longer lasting, the move.