Thursday, July 01, 2010

Why Nancy Pelosi MUST BE VOTED OUT in the next election

Watch this:

Pelosi.. Unemployment Creates Jobs

WashExaminer remarks..

So Nancy would have us believe that extending unemployment benefits "creates jobs"?

First off.. let's call these extended benefits what they are... Welfare. That's right.. Welfare.. Because the regular benefits were actual insurance, with premiums paid by both employers and employees. But they don't want to call it Welfare.. So they call it "extended unemployment benefits"..

Listen up Nancy.. I agree that we need to create jobs. But if you think keeping people on welfare is the way to do it, you're not playing with a full deck.

Why not just use those extended unemployment benefits to pay for a tax credit for small businesses to hire and (re)train those on the unemployment roles? At least these people would be retaining job skills instead of wallowing in self-pity, drinking beer, and playing Xbox.

But that's not the game plan.. Keep people on those "extended benefits" and guess what??.. They're more likely to vote democratic in the next election.

The government has a role in stimulating the economy and stabilizing the job market. After all, this country is about it's people. Political Parties and Corporations exist to SERVE the needs of the people. They are TOOLS for promoting opportunities for prosperity for the people.

If you want to stimulate the economy, cut taxes and cut public sector salaries to parity with the taxpayers that ultimately pay their salary and pensions. It's IMMORAL that public sector workers enjoy greater prosperity than those in the private sector.

That's what is endemically wrong with this economy. Private sector risk taking is inhibited by public sector grifters.

Don't get me wrong.. There are VALID public sector jobs, many of them very dangerous. But for God's sake, we have cops making well over $100K per year in many cities and it's bankrupting the system.

But let's just end this with the understanding that Welfare DOES NOT create jobs to any greater degree than Small Business tax credits that would cost less and KEEP THOSE PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN THE FIRST PLACE.

It's simple.. Taxpayer money spent for stimulative purposes needs to have an Return On Investment (ROI). Infrastructure.. Space Exploration... Creating the Internet, Materials and Energy Science.. etc.

We can't afford Welfare.. But WE CAN PROVIDE WORKFARE, so people retain their dignity, their work ethics, and the taxpayers get something in return.

Scrutinizer
The Two Faces Of Goldman Sachs

What a great coup for ZeroHedge.. And it shows just how "two-faced" a Big Wall Street firm is when it comes to providing one set of strategies for their "special clients", which is directly opposite of what one of the Vice Presidents, and Top "Analysts" tells the retail customer on CNBS or some other media outlet:

GS Trading Report

Notice the "distribution" list?

Not for distribution to retail investors

But apparently THIS is for distribution to the "retail" J6P investor:

Abby Cohen: Here to pump (and dump) you up..

We think the recovery here in the United States is quite solid. It will not be as fast as we have seen in previous recoveries from recession, when our GDP had grown 8%, but we think we have very solid growth of about 3%, which is dramatically faster than we are seeing in many of the other developed economies.

WHO THE HELL IS "WE"??? The clients (hedge funds, and big money, and maybe even Uncle Sam) who have hired GS to sell their stock positions to a bunch of gullible retail investors, most of whom can't even pay their mortgages and credit cards off, let alone be sure they will have a job in a year.

It's certainly NOT the GS Trading affiliates.

Those guys are seeing the VERY SAME thing I've been discussing for the past month here.

And don't EVEN get me started about Goldman's complicity in the Real Estate Bubble and it's eventual demise, or their role with Credit Default Swaps. And now they want to get those Carbon Credit markets rolling so they can put the screws to America just a bit more.

Scrutinizer

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Chart Of The Day

The Black Swan Cometh

Btw, ADP jobs data came in especially weak. There was an estimate of 60,000 new jobs and the report only registered 13,000.

The S&P 500 is currently trading under 1040 (@1039 as I type) so apparently there may be little support for the index this morning and that may put us firmly under that critical 1040 H&S "neckline".

Also, European indices started off the morning in the green, but now have turned negative.

Additionally, the only major Asian index in the green was Singapore.

Scrutinizer

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Descending MA Trifecta Next?

Once in awhile I come across one of those technical indicators that constitute an epiphany in my analysis of the markets. I knew about this one, but somehow it got overshadow by all the other TA noise one hears from day to day.

It's called the MA Trifecta and pertains to what happens when 30, 50, and 200 (Day/Week/Month.. etc) Moving Averages all "roll over" into a declining trend and how reliable of a signal that is.

Descending MA Trifecta

Visit the chart link below and adjust the time frequencies to 5 year, then 10 year, inputting SPX, INDU, RUT, and QQQQ which represent the major indices.

Daily Chart Template

Now use the Weekly, All-data settings and the above symbols. Here's a weekly chart template:

Weekly INDU Chart Template

Also, note that the INDU chart shows the 50 Week MA NEVER made it above the 200 Week MA after the 2008-2009 crash. Now change the settings to "1 year, weekly" and you'll see that the all three averages are declining. That's the "Trifecta" and as you've seen from back testing in the links above, IT'S A POWERFUL INDICATOR THAT IS SELDOM WRONG about the direction of the market.

And the 100 week MA reverifies this trend:

100 Week MA chart template

The only way the MA Trifecta gets busted is normally when the shortest term (30 period) changes direction. And, as always, the longer the time frame (day, week, monthly.. etc) the stronger the signal and the longer it will take to reverse.

And btw, this also works to the upside for identifying UPTRENDS, so it's good to remind oneself and revisit the basics of Technical Analysis.

Ok.. so minus some miracle of positive event related news, it would appear that we're going to continue the downward trend in coming weeks. We have continuing follow through selling in Asia, but not to the same degree as last night. We'll have to see how Europe's markets perform, as well as the Euro and USD ratio. The Euro has resumed its previous decline and that puts upside pressure on the USD (making our goods more expensive to sell overseas).

Furthermore, we saw tremendous buying of US Treasuries, bringing the yields (interest rate they pay) down over 20% on the 10 year bond. That's a sign of panic buying and flight from equities.

Continue to watch the Perfect Stock Alerts (no affiliations between us) market videos.. They're informative, understandable, and entertaining.

Scrutinizer
And The Hammer Falls: S&P 500 breaks below Head and Shoulders Neckline

As I write this, the S&P 500 (SPX) has broken the Head and Shoulders neckline at 1040. It's currently at 1038, which suggests that we're on the way to 900.

Christian at Perfectstockalerts sums it up rather nicely, and has been extremely accurate in his Technical Analysis.

If You're An Idiot, Buy Stocks

To remind you, PSA is predicting a 2100 point loss in the DOW industrials that takes us back to 8000 or so.

PSA predicts 2100 decline in Dow 30

I've tried to warn those friends of mine who are still in the market that this was likely to happen. I'm sad for those who didn't follow the signs.

Now.. to remind all of you, THIS H&S formation currently represents a H&S within a H&S. The major H&S covers a 12 year period originating from the Internet Bubble, to the Real Estate Bubble all time high in 2007, and now the Sovereign Debt Bubble.

Mother Of All Head And Shoulders, Revisited

Now.. it's POSSIBLE that we might see a rally back up to 1060 on the SPX, but the cake has been baked. If we get that rally, you're well advised to sell into it and go to bonds, cash, or for the more daring, go short through the wide variety of Ultra-Short ETFs such as BGZ, TZA, DRV, FAZ.. etc:

Bearish ETF list

But I advise you to wait for a strong rally before indulging in the Ultra-Short sector. These things are notoriously volatile and you'll find you're underwater at times before they gain strength as the market declines continue.

China: The Canary In The Coal Mine

China revisted

China's Leading Economic Indicators were revised downward today and that led to a 4% decline in the Shanghai market. Why this is considered important is that since so many goods come from China to be sold in the US and Europe, if they are producing less, then we're ordering less. Therefore, it provides an interesting signal that analysts watch for signs of future US economic health.

Of course, many also would assert that you can't really believe China's economic data due to governmental controls.

So will this market muster a rally tomorrow? Depends upon the jobs data that will come out tomorrow (from ADP) and on Thursday official Jobless claims. Both of these will come out pre-market, so they could create some additional shocks to the market.

Bloomberg Economic Calendar

Bear in mind that we're seeing a lot of pressure on local and state governments to cull their excess workforce and balance their bloated budgets.

Good luck out there. And remember that RETURN OF CAPITAL IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN RETURN ON CAPITAL.

Scrutinizer

Monday, June 28, 2010

The Next "9/11" Coming To/Across A Border Near You?:

AL Qaida and Hizballah form "alliance" with Latin Dictators and Drug Cartels.


It's been long rumored (at least publicly.. ;0) that there has been an extensive Militant Islamist presence in Latin America. They have been involved in fund raising (organized crime and drug smuggling), money laundering, as well as planning and training missions for their operatives to infiltrate the US.

So today I caught this article in "Homeland Security Today" (see my favorite links) alleging that these various Islamist factions, both Sunni/Salafist and Shi'a, have been forming alliances with many of the vicious Latin gangs like MS-13:

Unholy Trinity?

If you have trouble navigating the article, just click on it and look for arrows for page turning purposes.

Anyhoo.. As I mentioned, US intelligence has long been aware that these groups have been attempting to open transport and infiltration routes into the US. And with the increasing power of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, that country has become a favorite location for the world's terrorist groups. In 2005, Hugo Chavez appointed Arturo Cubillas Fontan, a leader of the Basque terrorist group, ETA, as Venezuela's "Deputy Director, Ministry for Land and Agriculture, presumably because of his extensive connections to the Colombian Marxist Guerilla group, FARC. And this past March, as the result of information gleaned from captured computer files of a FARC commander, it was learned that Chavez had arranged for ETA and FARC terrorists to attempt the assassination of Colombia's President Uribe:

Captured FARC documents demonstrate Chavez ties to terrorism

Hugo denies all.. Claims damning FARC computer files tampered with.

Most have heard of Chavez's relationship with Iran's government and how they feel about the US:

Chavez and Iranian relations

And more recently, if you haven't been living in a cave, you might have heard about Syria's President, Bashir Assad, making a visit to Venezuela a few days ago:

Chavez and Assad united against "Common Enemies"..

So Chavez believes the US, and the American people, are his enemies? Does that mean a state of war exists, at least unofficially, between Venezuela and the US, as well as Israel? This guy sure knows how to put a lot on his plate... ;0)

Now.. if you've read the HST article above, you've figured out that there is an extensive "cultural acclimatization" presence for Islamist militants in Latin America. They are learning the language and the culture in preparation for infiltrating these "assets" into the US. One would think that would grab major headlines, if not highlight how important the illegal immigration issue is to our National Security. If we don't know who is in our country, then how can we know if they are actually Latin Americans looking for a better life, or Islamist militants staging to commit terrorist acts against the American public?

So why am I addressing this subject today?

Well, it would seem the FBI just put the Habeus Grabbus on 10 Russian Spies from a sleeper network and it seems to be BIG NEWS even though no acts of violence seem evident in their espionage activities.

10 Russian agents arrested

Well. I agree.. it's great that we caught them.

But are we still focusing on "cold war" grudge matches, while we seemingly TOTALLY IGNORE the presence of more violently inclined Islamic Militants entering our unguarded borders and assimilating into the Latin communities? Are we not concerned that they might be financing inner city gang activity, while facilitating narcotics trafficking to destroy the minds and lives of our young people?

Still don't believe it's worth getting upset about? How about this quote from this known Al Qaida recruiter:

Islamist recruiter details use of smuggled biological weapons against US

Pretty scary, eh? This is a guy who's a friend of the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar (who's related by marriage to Usama Bin Ladin).

Therefore, I have to ask.. WHY HASN'T HE BEEN SENT OFF TO COLLECT HIS 72 VIRGINS ALREADY???!!

And why are we paying more attention to Russian spies than to people plotting to obtain and smuggle four pounds of Anthrax across the Mexican border?

We don't have our priorities straight in this country.

Scrutinizer

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Summer of regret, or opportunity?

We continue to await the final direction of this market. The SPX seemed to attempt a defense of 1040 last week by holding around the 1080 level, but it seemed to involve a lot of selling.

SPX daily chart

And when you input "weekly" as the time frame, you'll see that 6 out of the past 9 weeks, including last week, involved more selling than buying. This would seem to be a clear sign of major distribution (selling) into rallies. And even going back to the point where the April was made, we can see that it happened on mediocre buying pressure that was overshadowed by previous, and later, selling. That's not normal and was suggestive of a head-fake rally in April.

And pay particular attention to how many weeks passed in that move up to the April high, and how quickly it moved down (11 weeks to move from 1050 to 1217, while it took 4 weeks to move back down to 1050 FROM 1217). Any move that effectively erases the previous gains in a far shorter time is bearish. (btw, I'm not even counting the "flash crash" low, which would have wiped out all of those gains within a week).

That means that selling pressure is MUCH STRONGER than buying pressure.

Summer Rally or Summer Slump?!

Near term market scenarios

So how do we know which way the market goes? We don't. But I suggest that sometime next week we're going to get a better idea of where it's heading. If it involves an ACTUAL retest of 1040-1050, that could set us up for a summer rally. Break down below it and the SPX is heading towards 950, and then possibly 800.

Again.. I want to be bullish, but I'm not seeing any reason to be at this point. Some tremendous technical damage has been done by the 2008 crash and it's going to take time to work that out, even assuming we don't fall back into a double-dip recession (depression).

Here's some more stuff to digest regarding the ultimate direction of the market:

13 Signs The US Economy Has Hit A Brick Wall.

Why The U.S. Will Never Have A Balanced Budget Again.

And watch what going on with China, and especially the Shanghai markets. It represents actual manufacturing expectations far more than the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) market. It's been losing value consistent for weeks now, and it's down another half a percent this morning.

Shanghai index

Shanghai market chart

Very disturbing reading, wouldn't you say?

Of course, many other countries like Japan and Europe are in the very same boat. But the USD is the global reserve currency and if the investing community loses confidence in it's ability to act as a storehouse of value, we're screwed.

Scrutinizer