Wanna make some Money?: Monoline insurers were top performers today!!

I don't normally make many stock recommendations, but I'm fairly confident we're starting to see the signs of a major recovery in the Monoline Insurers (symbols: ABK, MBI, RDN, PMI, MTG and a few others).

As we've been discussing, the evidence of mortgage fraud is front and center on the business and national news media. We've discussed the political ramifications, as politicians are forced to address the issue in order to appease their constituency, most of whom are living in houses that are underwater.

Now.. I'm going to post two links that provide a VERY SOUND fundamental analysis of MBI's position and how it could find itself having it's credit status restored.. It's also important to bear in mind that MBI and ABK are two of the largest issuers of municipal bond insurance. They back the governmental issuances of many local and state debt offerings. If they are unable to provide effective insurance for those municipal debts, it increases the cost of new issuances (or makes them completely untenable). It also increases the cost of Credit Default Swaps, making that debt appear to be less stable.

So it's important for an economic recovery to fully succeed that the financial surety industry recover as well, even if it means at the cost of pummeling the TBTF (Too Big Too Fail) Banks on Wall St.

Here's the first presentation on MBI:

MBI: Why The Bond Insurers May Be The Huge Winners From The Brewing Mortgage-Bond Scandal

Click on the 44 slide presentation towards the bottom of the page.

Also, there was a very negative call on Bank of America today.. Here's the link for that presentation:

Mortgage Repurchase: BAC's hidden liability

Now.. for the purpose of disclosure, I'm long both ABK and RDN. But ABK and MBI are the major players in this realm and have the most upside potential.

ABK crossed over $1/share in Afterhours trading.. It's on the brink of flipping it's weekly Parabolic SAR to an uptrend if it crosses above 1.10 tomorrow. That could trigger a major short squeeze, given that Friday is options expiration and there are 54 million shares short in ABK.

ABK, back in July, 2007, just as the sub-prime crisis was beginning to unfold, was a $95/share stock, so one can just imagine the potential for price appreciation if they can commute many of their liabilities, unlock capital reserves they had to set aside for expected losses, and commence writing new surety business again.

Just last year, in Oct, 2009, the stock went from below $1/share to $3 within just a few weeks on rumours of commutations (as I recall).

I missed that train (and probably a good thing since it plummeted afterward), but I've got my ticket for this ride.. And it's just possible that this ride is going to be for real, and the start of a significant recovery in its share price.

Scrutinizer

HOW MAIN STREET HAS DESTROYED WALL STREET

Over and over, when discussing the level of defaults and foreclosures, I hear people ranting and raving against those people who bought homes they couldn't afford. And, of course, the "banksters" love to make themselves out as the victims of borrower fraud.

But here's the other side of this. The banks, and Congress by encouraging home ownership for everyone, skewed the demand curve to it's extremes. Then the Mortgage Banksters opened up the spigots to include liar loans, no-interest loans, and ARMS.. But most importantly, they started financing illegal aliens, even going so far as to assist them in obtaining FICO scores that would meet the loan requirements. How they did this was by "renting" scores from other individuals by being added as "authorized users", but not being given access to the actual credit line. Of course, the borrower paid for this service.. ;0)

FICO piggy-backing

So every individual family that COULD afford to purchase a home honestly (meeting basic lending standards and downpayment) were forced to compete against the sub-prime borrowers in the housing market. And of couse, when the sub-prime borrowers default, or are just abandoned (in the case of many illegal aliens), then everyone's home values fall.

So the other side of this is Main Street. And the next time you hear someone complain about how unqualified borrowers are at fault, read this to them:

How Main Street destroyed Wall Street

In sum, home prices should have risen according to the traditional standard based upon the credit worthiness of the borrower. Instead, the banksters turned the mortgage market into a huge real estate stock market, through the (illegal?) securitization process. Take a contract debt instrument, package it into a security, and sell it to an investor.

What exactly is a Mortgage? Isnt' it a debt contract, backed by collateral in the form of a house? Isn't that what all debt is (unless unsecured).. a contract between borrower and lender. And now we're turning contracts into stocks, to be bought and sold furiously, and for those with the wherewithal, destroyed by using Naked Credit Default Swaps??

This is implicitly why Glass-Steagal should be re-implemented. It's one thing to have a market for determining the value of asset prices, including real estate and stocks. But to have a actual debt contracts turned into securities undermines the foundation of our entire economy.

In sum, debt is debt.. a contract between borrower and lender. It's value should be dependent upon its performing status.

An asset, hard, paper, or commodity, should be valued according to market price discovery processes.

Scrutinizer

Recent stock market rally.. What if it was priced in Euros?

The recent S&P advance priced in Euros

It's clear that the only reason the US stock market has climbed is because the US Dollar has fallen against other currencies.

So for those who believe this rally is credible, you'd better watch the US dollar. When it turns upward, it's likely all those gains in the S&P are going to start being erased.

Scrutinizer

Mortgage Fraud: MERS on very shaky legal ground

This is the best explanation I've yet heard regarding the controversy over the legitimacy of MERS and the ENTIRE mortgage securitization process. In sum, the mortgage banks wanted to circumvent paying the recording fees to each individual county where titles and deeds recording who actually owns a piece of property were maintained. MERS attempted to replace that structure, without legal authority. A tidbit that should make it worth your reading the remainder of the link:

Because the new system cut out payment of county recording fees it was significantly cheaper for intermediary mortgage companies and the investment banks that packaged mortgage securities. Acting on the impulse to maximize profits by avoiding payment of fees to county governments much of the national residential mortgage market shifted to the new proxy recording system in only a few years. Now about 60% of the nation’s residential mortgages are recorded in the name of MERS, Inc. rather than the bank, trust, or company that actually has a meaningful economic interest in the repayment of the debt.15 For the first time in the nation’s history, there is no longer an authoritative, public record of who owns land in each county.

MERS illegality explained

As the reader can see, the case is very compelling that 60% of the existing mortgages may have been fraudulently originated and then illegally conveyed into the securitization process.

And here's another good article on the problem:

Primer on Foreclosure Crisis

And I have to agree with Denininger in that only an RTC style program is going to resolve this. Waiting to undertake this process is only delaying the inevitable pain. And that pain will only grow more intense as more and more legal findings are brought forth.

EDIT: Oct 12, 2010

And one of the few credible reporters for CNBC, Diana Olick, is even hopping on the bandwagon..

Foreclosure Fraud: It's Worse Than You Think

However, I have to ask why it's taken the "News" Media over a year to finally cover this issue? Why is it newsworthy NOW, but not back in 2008, or even earlier??

This isn't new stuff.. Denininger has been covering this issue for well over a year.

And the Monolines have been suing Wall St. banks over their fraudulent originations for over a year.. But NOW it's "news"??

EDIT: Oct 13th JP Morgan (JPM) stops using MERS mortgage registration system:

JPM admits "OOPSIE DAISY"!!

And more amplification on exactly what MERS is (and what it isn't) from Washington's Blog:

MERS role in foreclosure mess

Again, it's amazing the amount of political momentum that is gathering over this issue despite the fact that it's been a well-known fact that has been discussed for well over a year.

Scrutinizer