Well, my trade in Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) from Thursday did not go well on Friday. I bought it after it retraced from it's $13/share high, under the belief that $10 would provide psychological support as the shorts covered. Recall that some 40-50% of the stock's 83 million share float has been shorted and that's significant considering the stock was once $25/share just a few months ago. But as a result of the controversial FDA ruling, the shares plummeted.

Here's a link to the CNBC interview with Dr. Gold, DNDN CEO back in March when the FDA panel recommended approval for Provenge:

March, 2007 interview on CNBC with DNDN CEO

DNDN short interest as of May 15

The company has completed Phase III testing on its Immunotherapeutic drug for Prostrate Cancer, Provenge and has received "fast track" authority for final approval. And what is more interesting is that it's the first cancer drug that is designed to assist the bodies own immune response to target the cancer cells, rather than typical chemo-therapy that uses chemicals to destroy the cancer (and generally winds up killing other healthy cells and weakening the immune system as a result). So we're talking about some innovative bio-technology here that could have a huge impact on fighting not only prostrate cancer, but other forms as well.

But what is the company's stock worth, should their drug be approved by the FDA?:

DNDN value analysis

This gentleman from the "Seeking Alpha" website suggests that there are signs of major "corruption" within the FDA advisory panel that has been delaying approval of Provenge and this makes sense to me:

Seeking Alpha's comments on DNDN and FDA

So we're engaged in some serious market valuation "Hardball" and both the shorts and longs are lining up for a market "brawl" in coming weeks. This is going to be an interesting week to observe in the stock.

I posted this commentary on the DNDN Yahoo discussion thread yesterday and I still stand by my comments:

My Yahoo comments

But what are the charts telling us about investor psychology in the shares?:

Daily Bigchart for DNDN

But even more telling is the weekly chart:

DNDN Weekly Bigchart

Now if you'll note on that weekly chart, everytime the weekly Stochastic has turned upward, it has led to major gains in the share price. Hence, my decision to speculate on having a chance to participate in a second run-up (having missed the first one .. sigh). There's just that much money at stake that it's hard to discern what the true valuation of this stock should be based upon the potential of the drug.

But what is the status of Provenge? Is it safe? Is it effective? Well, the FDA has ALREADY ruled that Provenge is safe by a UNANIMOUS vote of 17-0, so what's the problem with approving it?

FDA minutes from March meeting of advisory council:

FDA Advisory Council minutes discussing Provenge..

Pg. 370 is where they discuss effectiveness and the controversial NO votes were cast by 3 out of 4 panel members who have a conflict of interest and had to be granted waivers

And did Dr. Scher, one of the "Nays" on the FDA advisory committee, lie about his conflict of interest, for which he had to receive a waiver to be on that FDA advisory committee? The member who went to the extraordinary measures of actually writing a letter warning against approving Provenge, here is a list of his UNDISCLOSED conflicts of interest that should have been sufficient to deny his eligibility for being on that that committee to begin with? Decide for yourself:

Dr. Scher is on the Science Advisory Board of an investment fund with over $900 million under management. Why wasn't this disclosed on his COI waiver? And why wasn't it disclosed that Novecea is one of those portfolio companies? Fine, if he had disclosed this, then it could have been adjudicated. But it NEVER came up in the COI waiver letter.

Dr. Scher on Science Advisory board of investment fund

Summation of Dr. Scher's undisclosed Conflict of Interest

FDA confirms safety of Provenge

And read this logically based letter from another DNDN shareholder, to the FDA:

Open Letter from DNDN shareholder to FDA

I can't find any fault with the logic the author displays. Clearly the drug is efficacious because 34% of the patients who took Provenge are still alive, as compared to only 11% who took the placebo. And the FDA advisory committed UNANIMOUSLY agreed that Provenge is safe, so what's the problem with temporary approval of the drug, pending final results of the IMPACT study? If it's safe, let THE PATIENT make the choice of taking it or not.. If anything, it provides HOPE...

And what's even more interesting, and something that will likely receive some news coverage on Monday, is that a Cancer patients have spontaneously banded together to lobby congress to have the FDA approve the drug NOW, and not wait. That's unheard of, from my past experience. The group, ProvengeNow will be assembling on Capital Hill at 10 AM on Monday, and since I'm near-by, I think I'll try and be in attendance as well (with Laptop in hand because the Scrutinizer is addicted to his Level 2 market data). But it will be interesting to see if any Senators step out to speak with the demonstrators, and how the FDA will respond to future calls from Senators asking:

"If this drug has been unanimously deemed safe, and 75% of you deemed it effective, why are you holding up approving it? Get off your butts and approve the drug NOW!!! I have constituents WHO VOTE and I don't want them to die before the next election!!.."

That's how politics work.

This could get interesting...

ProvengeNow assembly on the Upper Senate Park on Capital Hill

ProvengeNow's mission statement

Now one more point. DNDN has been "flying solo" throughout this development process, apparently not being willing to partner with a big pharmaceutical. There has been some rumours flying through the CBOE in Chicago (where coincidentally the ASCO convention is occuring this weekend) that DNDN will arrive at a partnering agreement in order to ensure they have the political clout to get their drug onto the market first. Some shareholders have mentioned that DNDN fired their marketing staff recently as a cost-saving measure, presumably because they would not rely upon their partner firm to market and distribute the drug. If this is the case, presumably it could prove to be a tremendous driver for the stock price and the shorts will find themselves facing a problem.

In sum, owning DNDN is a high risk venture that could provide massive returns, or (at these current valuations) some time spent in Cramer's "House of Pain". But again, looking at the charts, I'm wagering I'll be hearing that sultry voice telling me I'm in the "House of Pleasure" sometime in coming weeks.

The Scrutinizer

The little company that might "own" the CDN and Music Streaming market.

There's this little company that's been struggling to get some respect in the VOD and Real Time Operating System markets. It's called Concurrent Computers (Nasdaq: CCUR). A few years back they purchased this company by the name of Everstream which specializes is audience tracking analytics for the cable industry (think automated Nielsen's Rating for on-demand content) that could assist advertisers to better target their audience for specific ad content.

Now, everyone has thought about CCUR as a VOD play.. they claim to have set the standard for VOD servers that the major cable companies will require for meeting the growing demand for VOD content. But for whatever reason, they haven't yet received much respect from the market place (probably due to the fact that they've had difficulty achieving profitability while they been restructuring and improving their product line).

Well, the old Scrutinizer must admit that he's been a "bag-holder" in this stock for almost a year now, with most of my shares under $2/share in price. I've just been laying in wait for the moment when the hidden value of this company would be recognized. I'm a firm believer that VOD, and all the advertising opportunities involved, will be the next major driver for advancing the internet (anyone remember the internet bubble back in 2000? I don't think you've seen anything yet).

Well, back to the story... It would seem that Everstream holds a series of extensive patents that pertain to both CDN and Music Streaming market places that date back to 1996, before any of these current CDN and music streaming players were even around. And furthermore, it would seem that CCUR and Everstream's lawyers believe that the BIG BOYS in the CDN field might just be violating most of them. But instead of calling in the "legal eagles" to form a IP posse (remember these guys are still a small fish in a big sea), they've opted to hold a strategic auction for these patents, with the provision that CCUR receives a license back to use them.

Read all about it here:

Concurrent Computers looks to auction off critical CDN and Music streaming patents

AND A MUST READ!!! Light Reading article related to CCUR's patents.

And view the company's recent presentation for FBR Capital Markets today:

CCUR presentation

Now what are these patents? Well.. take a look for yourself and decide if companies like AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AKAM, INAP, and many others, might just be violating them. And while you're reviewing them, think about how much they might be worth to one of those 800 pound gorillas in the targeted ad market who is trying to lock in their "turf". I mean.. not only secure their turf, but force their competitors to license the patents from THEM!!

How humbling would that be?

So here are the patents.. You decide for yourself:

Programmed music on demand from the internet

Programmed music on demand from the internet #2

Method and system for using a communication network to supply targeted streaming advertising in interactive media

As a final note, some folks might recall that MSFT recently issued a statement that Linux providers might be violating over 230 patents held by Bill Gate's "Evil Empire". That's sent shivers (and outrage) through the Linux markets)...

Now just think what Billy "The Borg" Gates might be willing to pay for the ability to lock up music streaming and CDN delivering?

Hmmmm....

And if you still can't understand the significance of IP protections (read $$$$$$$!!!) for these markets, think about this.. MSFT recently paid $6 Billion for AdQuantive just so they could set themselves up to compete against GOOG pending acquisition of Double-Click. They both just bought themselves some "money trees", and both are looking to start plucking those $$$ bills and stuffing them into their pockets..

Were they smart buys?

Analysis of CND potential market

But one problem.. Those "money trees" happen to be growing on (Patented) land that Everstream holds the "deed" to. They staked a claim to that territory back in 1996, long before GOOG, or AdQuantive existed.

Now, if you're going to pay that kind of "bling" for CDN "Money Trees", how much are you going to be willing to pay for the deed and title to the land they are growing on? How much would you pay for patents on Music streaming?

And how much would you pay just to keep your most ferocious competitors from getting the deed to that land and taking a percentage from every dollar you pluck from your tree? Even if you think you can contest the deed, wouldn't it make sense to fork out some cash to improve your case in IP court?

Something to REALLY think about.. and given how the shares are responding over the past couple of days, I think some other folks are thinking about it too..

The Scrutinizer

Ray Robinson has an article on American Thinker that I think is of importance:

Al Qai'da fracturing?

And if one reflects upon the recent article where we're seeing some of the most prominent leaders of Egyptian Jihadist groups speaking out against Al Qai'da, it seems to indicate that the strategy of putting Al Qai'da in the position of having to deliberately target fellow muslims with terrorist attacks has ellicited the desired result.

It's one thing for the "Arab street" to applaud, condone, or simply remain indifferent to attacks against infidel "Ferengi" (Persian word "Faranji" for foreigner), but when those attacks are conducted against other Muslims, then they are directly challenging the Fatwas of the existing Islamic scholarly hierarchy. And Egypt is the leading center for Sunni Islamic thought and the Grand Imam and the Grand Mufti of Egypt have taken public stances against violent Jihad, and especially Jihad that targets other muslims.

Egytian militant leaders denouncing violent Jihad

Let's all keep our fingers crossed that this trend will continue. Because, ultimately, it is up to the practioners of Islam to determine how it will interface with the rest of the world.

The Scrutinizer

Bought some DNDN today around $10 on news the FDA will not require 3 years of additional testing, but merely "further information"

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070531/aqth093.html?.v=6

The great financial website "Seeking Alpha" has been strongly questioning the practices of the FDA panel that sought to exclude Provenge from being considered..

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070529/36622_id.html?.v=1

DNDN's recent high was $25 and had plummeted to mid-single digits. On release of the news this morning, the stock had rocketed up 60% to 13 (resistance level). Missed that first move up there (that was something to behold on Level 2), but decided to buy back in at $10/share. I believe it will attempt to hold here and maybe attempt to retest $11-12/share short term.

And btw, the short position against DNDN equates to 41% of the trading float. That's a HUGE short position that someone has to cover.

Also, I bought QTWW on news that Force Protection, INC (FRPT: Nasdaq) has contracted with QTWW to build a replacement for the HUMMV (HUMMER to you civies.. ;0) FPRT has been one of the hot performers over the past year on their series of mine-resistant vehicles and given the fact that DOD will likely be replacing, and not refurbishing, existing equipment, both companies stand to do well.

The weekly chart just looks REALLY EXCITING on QTWW and combined with the fact that 7% of the stock is short, the shares could see significant upside in coming days:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070531/lath009.html?.v=101

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=QTWW&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=&ma=4&maval=13%2C%2B22%2C%2B50&uf=8&lf=268435456&type=4&time=9&style=320&startdate=&enddate=&size=4&lf2=32&lf3=4

(Note: See that Bollinger Band "pinch" forming on the weekly chart?

The Scrutinizer